解释深度幻觉的基本认知偏差
Do you know how a bicycle works?
Most people are sure they do, yet they are unable to complete a simple line drawing that shows how a bicycle works. Even when much of the bicycle is already drawn for them, they can’t do it.
“People feel they understand complex phenomena with far greater precision, coherence, and depth than they really do,” researchers concluded.
For planners, the illusion of explanatory depth is obviously dangerous. But researchers also discovered that, unlike many other biases, there is a relatively easy fix: When people try and fail to explain what they mistakenly think they understand, the illusion dissolves.
By requiring Pixar film directors to walk through every step from the big to the small and show exactly what they will do, Pixar’s process forces them to explain. Illusions evaporate long before production begins, which is when they would become dangerous and expensive.
你知道自行车是如何工作的吗？
大多数人肯定认为他们知道，但他们却无法完成一张简单的线图，说明自行车是如何工作的。即使自行车的大部分已经为他们画好了，他们还是画不出来。
“人们觉得自己比实际情况更精确、更连贯、更深入地理解了复杂的现象，”研究人员总结道。
对于规划者来说，解释深度的错觉显然是危险的。但研究人员还发现，与许多其他偏见不同，有一个相对容易的解决办法：当人们试图解释他们错误地认为自己理解的东西，但失败时，这种错觉就会消失。
通过要求皮克斯电影导演从大到小地走完每一步，并清楚地说明他们将做什么，皮克斯的制作流程迫使他们进行解释。错觉在制作开始很久之前就会消失，那时它们就会变得危险和昂贵。